There are no simple explanations for causes of conflict and the way they fuel violence. Several things need to be taken into account to approximate an understanding of it. The cycles of poverty spur it, together with rapid population growth, resource scarcity, discrimination and disempowerment of minorities and other groups in society, military threats and sources of insecurity. A certain mix of these factors can place an impossible burden on fragile societies, leading to violence and war.
It is important to distinguish between structural causes of conflict and the immediate causes that trigger conflict escalation. Structural causes include factors related to State weakness, poverty, political injustice and economic deprivation. Therefore, structural conflict prevention should have a strong economic, human needs and governance emphasis, and should combine development aid, local capacity-building, and assistance in election and human rights monitoring. Many of our partners in Sudan, Sri Lanka, Zimbabwe, Iraq and Gaza tackle all these aspects simultaneously in order to build the foundations for a real and lasting peace.
The immediate causes of conflict escalation are generally because of reckless decision making or bad leadership in many fragile societies. This way of rule often exploits the insecurity and vulnerability of marginalized peoples. Violence becomes a means of maintaining power.
Long-term Trends
• Mediation continues to rise and is known to be active in 58% of today’s conflicts
• The mediators themselves initiated most talks
Recent Trends
• More wars are now stopped by negotiated settlements than military victory but 43% of negotiated settlements relapsed into conflict within five years
• Half of the 44 conflicts analysed in 2006 have claimed less than 10,000 lives throughout their duration but around 22% of the conflicts have led to more than 100,000 deaths. The most lethal conflicts are those in South Sudan, DR Congo, Somalia, Burundi and Darfur.
• The overall outcome for 2007 is more negative than in previous years, as very few peace agreements have been reached and the dynamics in several armed conflicts have become more complicated. Particularly Sri Lanka, Colombia, Iraq, Somalia and Sudan among many others.
• This year witnessed a reaffirmation that the majority of armed groups today do not base their struggle on a specific political ideology but rather on the desire to conquer spaces of political or economic power, without any aims for structural transformations
Children and Conflict
• 6 million children injured in the last decade due to war
• 2 million child deaths in the last decade due to war
• 13 million internally Displaced Children
• 300,000 Child Soldiers
• 10,000 victims of Landmines every year
• 10 million child refugees
Resources & Links
Global Peace Index
http://www.visionofhumanity.org/gpi/results/rankings/2008/
Sydney University: Centre for Peace & Conflict Studies
http://www.arts.usyd.edu.au/centres/cpacs/
2008 Peace Process Yearbook
http://reliefweb.int/rw/lib.nsf/db900SID/SODA-7GB8PS?OpenDocument
Reuters AlertNet: Alerting humanitarians to Emergencies
http://www.alertnet.org/
